Senate Republicans are balking at a House tax package that could add $3.8 trillion to the deficit over ten years. The reconciliation bill faces major changes. Senators want to slash the SALT deduction cap from $40,000 to around $10,000 and resist making the child tax credit permanent. These revisions threaten House Speaker Mike Johnson’s thin majority. Blue-state Republicans could revolt over SALT cuts while moderates may oppose Medicaid reductions. The July 4 deadline looms as negotiations intensify.
Senate Republicans Wrestle With Multi-Trillion Dollar Bill
Several Senate Republicans are getting sticker shock from the House GOP’s massive tax and spending package. The reconciliation bill could add $3.8 trillion to the deficit over ten years, according to early estimates. That’s a tough pill to swallow for some fiscal hawks.
The price tag ranges from $2 to $3 trillion over a decade. Big money. Republicans need budget reconciliation to pass it with just 51 votes. But the Byrd Rule limits what they can include—everything must directly affect federal revenue or spending.
Cost concerns are real. Some GOP senators are already signaling discomfort with the House version.
SALT Deduction and Child Tax Credit Face Major Revisions
Two of the biggest tax breaks in the House bill are heading for major surgery in the Senate. The SALT deduction cap, which Republicans raised to $40,000 in the House version, will likely drop back closer to the current $10,000 limit. Senate negotiators aren’t feeling generous toward high earners. The child tax credit faces its own drama. House lawmakers made the $2,000 credit permanent and bumped it to $2,500 temporarily. But senators like Josh Hawley want more for families. With tax breaks tilting toward the wealthy, pressure’s building to throw working families a bigger bone. Something’s gotta give.
Path to Final Passage Remains Uncertain
Every change the Senate makes creates a new headache for House Speaker Mike Johnson. His razor-thin majority means even small defections kill bills. Senate negotiations guarantee major rewrites. Then House Republicans must swallow compromises they hate.
| Challenge | Impact |
|---|---|
| Slim GOP majority | 2-3 defections sink bills |
| SALT cap changes | Angry blue-state Republicans |
| Medicaid cuts | Moderate GOP resistance |
| Cost concerns | Fiscal hawks revolt |
| Timeline pressure | July 4 deadline looms |
The reconciliation process lets Republicans bypass Democrats. But it can’t bypass their own divisions. Johnson needs near-perfect unity. Senate changes make that harder. Every revision risks losing House votes.
